ManyPeaks.com

I continue to believe that the end of this bear market will not come via any government program, bailout, etc.  It will just take time.  Potentially a lot of time, but that’s forecasting and you never know. Along those lines, I wanted to point you toward an interview from December 2007 with Barry Ritholtz.  One […]

Acceptance is of course one step on the way to recovery.  Auto bailout talk still signals denial to me.
Hedge fund manager Howard Lindzon wrote a short, witty post summarizing our current situation.  The end about Steve Ballmer makes a very interesting point.  For my time, Howard’s blog is one of the best market conversations out […]

It does not portend good things to come.  And that’s my #1 reason for exercising extreme caution in the equity markets right now.
Below are charts of 10 yr Treasury yields (just move the decimal one place to the left and that’s the actual % yield).  The first one shows the last 6 months while […]

I’m not simply referring to the fact it’s been going down.
Global equity markets have obviously seen a rout for weeks now. But even if one has suspected such action — as we have — it is still a difficult trade to capture.
To us, the best course of action is either hedging long positions with […]

In a trader kind of way.  Courtesy of John Carter at TradeTheMarkets.com.  Good stuff but I doubt he’ll quit the day job.

“Before He Trades” ….. a Carrie Underwood Parody
Portfolio Update
More seriously, we still have client accounts very conservatively positioned… with only two stocks in the portfolio:

Tempur-Pedic (TPX) with it’s unique product, 50% short interest,
strong new […]

One of our readers (and valued clients!) asked for more detailed charts regarding yesterday’s post about Europeans’ returns owning United States stocks versus those a US investor achieved.
The chart below shows both the Euro vs. Dollar relationship and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the past 10 years. Euro vs Dollar is always […]

If you’re a European investor who’s owned the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2001, you’ve taken a much bigger beating than us dollar-denominated locals. The greenback’s plunge is of course the culprit.

The “Euro-Dow” sits at the equivalent of only 7200 — versus the true 11,300 close on Friday.
Thanks to Alea Blog for this startling […]

We have been honoring some of my mentor RevShark’s words this week. Saved from a long-ago post on RealMoney.com, I break out this quote whenever the market gets dicey.
“Keep the Damage to a Minimum.
If you can avoid taking a large hit now, you will be much better positioned when things get better.”
Words to invest […]

Both technically — our forte — and fundamentally.
Our friends at 1440 Wall Street posted some solid logic today from Pimco’s El-Erian today regarding when it’s smart to buy either the debt or equity of companies in an industry that’s recapitalizing rather than expanding. Umm, kind of like where the financial sector finds itself today.
We […]