ManyPeaks.com

I continue to believe that the end of this bear market will not come via any government program, bailout, etc.  It will just take time.  Potentially a lot of time, but that’s forecasting and you never know. Along those lines, I wanted to point you toward an interview from December 2007 with Barry Ritholtz.  One […]

John Paulson has some forthright words for fellow hedge fund managers refusing to distribute capital back to clients. (Don’t confuse him with our sweaty Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson — John has positively nailed this bear market, earning triple digit returns for clients in 2007 and double digits in 2008):
We think it’s a mistake for managers […]

Barry Ritholtz (who writes a very informative blog, The Big Picture) was interviewed in last week’s edition of Barrons. It’s well worth the read.
After being bearish and right for a few years he is turning a bit more constructive.  I liked the quote that at industry events he used to be the most negative guy […]

During 2008’s massive swoon, I have done very little searching for anecdotal evidence that a bottom was near.  In general I still believe too many folks retain a “oh, it will come back” mindset — which works extremely well in Bull markets — for these to be the absolute lows of this entire Bear.
But.. I […]

Port Authority Gets No Bids for Taxable Bond Offering
No bids..  As in zero !

Acceptance is of course one step on the way to recovery.  Auto bailout talk still signals denial to me.
Hedge fund manager Howard Lindzon wrote a short, witty post summarizing our current situation.  The end about Steve Ballmer makes a very interesting point.  For my time, Howard’s blog is one of the best market conversations out […]

It does not portend good things to come.  And that’s my #1 reason for exercising extreme caution in the equity markets right now.
Below are charts of 10 yr Treasury yields (just move the decimal one place to the left and that’s the actual % yield).  The first one shows the last 6 months while […]