ManyPeaks.com

GPS-device maker Garmin (GRMN) has a sweetheart of a chart setup. A little cup & handle pattern, as the stock gets ready to try for new highs after banging on those levels several times. In a news vacuum, I’d take this setup every time.

I bought in on the pullback last week, but today realized GRMN was reporting quarterly earnings tomorrow morning. I never enjoy holding stocks thru these events. When I do, it’s almost always because (A) I failed to realize the event was scheduled or (B) I was in some sort of gambling mood. “B” was the case in my most recent YHOO trade. Neither of these mistakes will be made with GRMN, as I sold out today for a scratch.

This Volcom (VLCM) is one I had owned but sold before earnings. I sidestepped the hit my account would have taken. Score: Me 1, Other guys 0.

Then, I was short Outback Steakhouse (OSI).. but as usual covered it before earnings. I think I made ten cents on the trade. Boom, earnings hit. Yes I’d have loved to have been short. But remember VLCM above? They certainly don’t all go your way, and I had no rationale to play either earnings report. Score: 1-1.

I am 100% convinced that unless you have superior, well-funded research capabilities (or illegal inside information), gaming stock moves based on earnings annoucements has horrible odds. Maybe at best, it’s a 50/50 coin toss. If I wanted those odds, I’d go to Vegas to play (correct) Blackjack all night — net winning only with all the good times & free drinks w/ friends.