In a 50-50 proposition..
September 27th, 2005 by BWV
What figure would you expect Winning Percentages to converge around over time ? It’s obvious, but I’ll expound:
In our NFL spread betting competition, I’m still in 2nd place.. but behind a new leader, Larry Lehmann. He made the max bet on Denver last night.. and thus got “paid.”
As a trader who focuses on Win % in my profession, I couldn’t help but include that figure as a column on the spreadsheet tracking the contest.. which I send out each week. Larry certainly liked his number this morning, and he emailed today wondering how long he could keep it going.
Well, here’s how my Win% went last season:
| Week | $ Win % |
| 1 | |
| 2 | |
| 3 | |
| 4 | 77% |
| 5 | 75% |
| 6 | 74% |
| 7 | 63% |
| 8 | 61% |
| 9 | 68% |
| 10 | 63% |
| 11 | 72% |
| 12 | 72% |
| 13 | 70% |
| 14 | 67% |
| 15 | 67% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 59% |
| Playoff 1 | 56% |
| Playoff 2 | 50% |
| Playoff 3 | 50% |
| Super Bowl | 45% |
In the end, 45% was good enough to win the contest in 2004. With 7 players this year (rather than 3), I think a positive figure will be required.
Buckner,
Glad to take part this year, makes sunday a little more interesting. Bengals 4-0? maybe…