Monday bounce not looking trusty
April 18th, 2005 by BWV
The Daily S&P chart sums it up. After the 3 big wide range down days from
$119 to $114 in the Spyder including the highest daily volume of the year
by far on Friday todays 36 cent bounce was a lame response narrow range
day with few signs of the beginnings of a reversal.
The 52 week NH/NL numbers are just disastrous. Breadth formed an intraday
ascending triangle teasing me with LTS turns during the session. Still,
it totalled only 3500-2900, so hard to think this is the start of anything
more than a short term bounce.
Permabears are loving this action, calling it the beginning of the end.
Meanwhile judging by the give-ups Im seeing in many stocks and sectors,
it feels like we are at least in the later ½ to 1/3 of the itermediate term
decline.
The way our economy and Fed are positioned, the bear case actually seems
plausible these days simply people finally paying attention to long-lived
negatives. It has been written by folks that I respect that the only way we
come out of this tailspin is by the Fed indicating it will back off on the
rate hikes. But inflation figures are obviously picking up, and they might
actually deliver some tough love, especially after Greenspan is gone at the
end of the year. Volckers similar type of love helped set the stage for
the 80s & 90 But.. caused pain for a while.
Monday 4/18 Market Internals
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1932 (56%) 1515 (47%)
Declines 1353 (39%) 1555 (48%)
Unchanged 158 (4%) 153 (4%)
Up Vol* 1270 (58%) 1082 (57%)
Down Vol* 857 (39%) 776 (41%)
Unch. Vol* 26 (1%) 23 (1%)
New Hi’s 10 25
New Lo’s 138 221
